Growth in home improvement and repair spending is expected to keep slowing through mid-2027, a signal that appliance retailers and manufacturers may see less support from remodel-driven replacement demand over the next year.
The latest Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity from the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University projects that year-over-year growth in renovation and repair spending will slow to 0.5% in the second quarter of 2027. The center said spending is projected to reach $519 billion through mid-2027.
The forecast does not break out appliances as a separate category. But remodeling activity is closely watched by the appliance trade because kitchen, laundry and broader home-improvement projects often influence replacement timing, premium upgrades, installation work and retail promotion strategy.
Renovation Momentum Is Cooling
Harvard’s Joint Center said annual spending on improvements and repairs to owner-occupied homes is expected to continue losing momentum. Rachel Bogardus Drew, director of the Remodeling Futures Program, said remodeling permitting and retail spending on building products have flattened recently, suggesting that renovation activity is cooling.
The center’s forecast points to a third consecutive quarter of decelerating year-over-year growth. That is a different environment from the pandemic-era boom, when more household spending, limited mobility and rising home values helped push many owners toward home projects.
The cooling trend does not mean remodeling spending is collapsing. It means the rate of growth is narrowing, which can still matter for appliance companies that rely on remodel cycles to lift demand for built-in refrigerators, cooking products, dishwashers, laundry pairs and ventilation.
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Why Appliance Companies Should Care
Major appliance purchases often happen when a homeowner replaces cabinets, changes a kitchen layout, renovates a laundry area or upgrades a home before or after a sale. When remodeling activity slows, that can reduce one source of discretionary appliance demand.
The pressure may be uneven. Replacement of failed appliances can continue even in a softer remodeling market, while higher-ticket upgrades and full-suite purchases are more exposed to consumer confidence, financing costs and project budgets.
Retailers may need to plan for a market in which shoppers are more selective and project-based purchases take longer to close. That could place more weight on financing offers, installation availability, bundled promotions, stock discipline and clear good-better-best assortments.
Housing Market Weakness Remains a Drag
The Joint Center pointed to reduced housing starts and broader economic uncertainty as limits on stronger remodeling gains. Chris Herbert, managing director of the center, said remodeling expenditures are likely to remain at the current pace until home sales rebound from low levels.
That connection is important for appliance demand. Home sales can trigger appliance replacements when sellers prepare a property, buyers remodel after closing or households relocate and purchase new products. A low-transaction housing market can keep some of that activity on hold.
For manufacturers, the forecast adds another planning complication alongside tariffs, freight costs, raw materials, channel inventory and promotional intensity. A slower remodeling environment can make it harder to count on project-driven demand to offset softer discretionary spending.
What the LIRA Measures — and What It Does Not
The LIRA is a short-term outlook for national home improvement and repair spending on owner-occupied homes. It is designed to project annualized spending for the current quarter and the following four quarters, and to identify turning points in the home improvement and repair business cycle.
The indicator does not measure rental-unit remodeling, regional markets or appliance-specific categories. That limitation matters: the forecast is a broad signal for the home-improvement economy, not a direct projection for refrigerator, laundry or cooking sales.
Even so, the direction of the forecast is useful for the appliance channel. Slower remodeling growth suggests retailers and manufacturers should expect a more competitive environment for discretionary upgrades, while continuing to support replacement buyers who cannot defer a broken washer, refrigerator or range.
